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| The Oscar Eye with Erik Childress (Updated Feb. 2 - OSCAR NOMINATIONS & REACTIONS) |
by Erik Childress
10 nominees for Best Picture. When it's all over will we look upon it as the answer to all our frustrating ills about the Academy Awards? No longer will a worthy film be screwed? Or will we see it as having opened up Pandora's Box to more unworthy films? Will the Broadcast Film Critics Association have to nominate 20 films now to increase their prediction percentage? What other questions can we work into discussion? Doesn't matter since few can be answered until all the films are screened and the critic's groups start handing out their awards. Such is always the case with The Oscar Eye, which will not put the Avatars, Invictus' and Lovely Bones into the mix until it sees them. Until then, films like Public Enemies can enjoy their ranking amongst the likely nominees pending its eventual dethronement.
OSCAR EYE ARTICLES ON THE AWARDS RACE
2/2 - Five (Semi)-Big Snubs & Other 2009 Oscar Facts
2/1 - FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS: Picture, Director & All The Rest
2/1 - FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS: The Screenplays
1/31 - FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS: Actor/Actress
1/30 - FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS: Supporting Actor/Actress
1/21 - Oscar Discuss: Avatar vs. The Dark Knight
1/17 - Avatar Wins the Globes Top Prize. Is Oscar Next?
1/16 - Lowlights at the 15th Annual BFCA Awards
1/16 - Inglourious Basterds at the Broadcast Film Critics Awards
1/13 - 10 Films Fighting For 5 Best Picture Slots (Part 1) and (Part 2)
1/11 - How Will The Writer's Guild Feel In The Morning?
1/7 - Director's Guild A Little Too 'Precious' In Their Choices
1/7 - WGA Disqualifies Nearly Everyone, Opens Door For Surprises
1/6- USC Scripter Nominees Don't Get Too 'Crazy'
1/6- Online Film Critics Put 'Hurt Locker' Back In Front
1/5- Producers' Guild Gives Sci-Fi A Boost For Oscar
1/4 - National Society of Film Critics 'Hurt' Oscar Chances?
12/21 - 'The Hurt Locker' Sweeps Chicago Awards
12/17 - SAG Helps Thin Oscar Herd?
12/16- 'Wild Things' Leads Nods in Chicago
12/15 - What Do The Golden Globes Mean for Oscar?
12/14 - New York Critics Give Hurt Locker Top Honors
12/14 - Critics Choice - Honor Guard or Wannabe Predictor?
12/14 - Have the L.A. Critics Given Us A New Awards Frontrunner?
12/14 - New York Onliners Break Ground With Avatar
12/13 - Boston Film Critics Blow Up Hurt Locker
12/4 - Just How Often Does The National Board Of Review Predict Oscar Winners
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*************************BEST PICTURE*************************
1. The Hurt Locker – Leading the awards tally.
2. Up In The Air – The one film from Toronto that everyone seems to agree is a lock, if not the frontrunner.
3. Inglourious Basterds – Tarantino's best reviewed film since Pulp Fiction. And his most successful. Gaining strength in the awards.
4. Avatar – Critics seem seduced by the visuals and forgot all about the story. Steam is gathering.
5. Precious – If voters are so persuaded by this lackluster film because of Oprah and Tyler Perry, just shut down the awards.
6. An Education – Last Sony Classics nominee here was Capote.
7. Invictus – Clint Eastwood. Damon. Freeman. Mandela. Automatically in the conversation. Plus it's fine enough.
8. Up – With five nominees, probably not in the conversation. With 10, they can easily make up for the WALL-E snub last year.
9. District 9 – Big boost with PGA nomination.
10. Nine – A box office bomb combined with bad reviews. Focus could be on Basterds now.
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11. A Serious Man – Still just hanging on.
12. Star Trek – PGA nomination puts it back on the list.
13. The Blind Side – The thought of this even being in the conversation sickens me.
14. Where the Wild Things Are – Critics dismissing it should be slapped. May be hurt by dwindling box office. Sad.
15. The Lovely Bones – All but lost in the awards race.
FILMS VOTING GROUPS SHOULD NOT OVERLOOK
(500) Days of Summer, Away We Go, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, In The Loop, The Invention of Lying
*************************BEST DIRECTOR*************************
1. Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker) – Looking more and more like the first female director to win an Oscar.
2. Jason Reitman (Up In The Air) – If it's the frontrunner and he was nominated for Juno, he has to be a lock right?
3. Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds) – His films have received precisely one nomination since Pulp Fiction. Time to rectify that?
4. James Cameron (Avatar) – "King of the world" speech was 12 years ago.
5. Lee Daniels (Precious) – DGA nomination gives him edge. Although they have only gone 5-for-5 with Oscar twice since 1982.
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6. Clint Eastwood (Invictus) – He will never be out of the running until the names are called.
7. Neill Blomkamp (District 9) – Don't count out the Blomkamp just yet.
8. Joel and Ethan Coen (A Serious Man) – Competition is stiff this year. If only there were ten nominees here.
9. Spike Jonze (Where The Wild Things Are) – Voters have nominated his films, but he's still waiting for a nod here. Third time's a charm?
10. Lone Scherfig (An Education) – Bigelow is likely way out ahead to be the trailblazer this year.
NAMES VOTING GROUPS SHOULD NOT OVERLOOK
Pete Docter (Up), Armando Iannucci (In the Loop), Sam Mendes (Away We Go), Steven Soderbergh (The Informant!), Marc Webb ((500) Days of Summer), David Yates (Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince)
*************************BEST ACTOR*************************
1. George Clooney (Up in the Air) – With no clear standout this year, he is likely the frontrunner.
2. Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker) – More a lock now than an underdog.
3. Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) – Last four L.A. critics choices have won.
4. Colin Firth (A Single Man) – Weinsteins grabbed it at Toronto and rushing it into Oscar season for a reason.
5. Morgan Freeman (Invictus) – Likely still a lock, but slinking towards the bottom position.
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6. Viggo Mortensen (The Road) – BFCA nomination keeps him on the playing field.
7. Tobey Maguire (Brothers) – Ditto for his Golden Globe nod.
8. Michael Stuhlbarg (A Serious Man) – This year's Richard Jenkins? Except pretty much completely unknown.
9. Matt Damon (The Informant!) –His Invictus performance getting more mentions.
10. Sharlto Copley (District 9) – You want a true underdog? Here ya go.
NAMES VOTING GROUPS SHOULD NOT OVERLOOK
Adrien Brody (The Brothers Bloom), Jim Carrey (A Christmas Carol), Joseph Gordon-Levitt ((500) Days of Summer), Hal Holbrook (That Evening Sun), John Krasinski (Away We Go), John Malkovich (The Great Buck Howard), Brad Pitt (Inglourious Basterds), Max Records (Where the Wild Things Are), Sam Rockwell (Moon), Adam Sandler (Funny People), Souleymane Sy Savane (Goodbye Solo), Michael Jai White (Black Dynamite), Robin Williams (World's Greatest Dad)
*************************BEST ACTRESS*************************
1. Carey Mulligan (An Education) – The nomination is a guarantee.
2. Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia) – This could be the slam dunk lock of the season.
3. Gabourey Sidibe (Precious) – This year's one-hit wonder never to be heard from again?
4. Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side) – Just because Pete Hammond says it, doesn't make it so. Or does it? God help us all.
5. Helen Mirren (The Last Station) – With a wide open fifth slot, a Globe nod could mean something.
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6. Emily Blunt (The Young Victoria) – Nominated by the Globes and the BFCA.
7. Saoirse Ronan (The Lovely Bones) – Another magnificent performance in a flawed film.
8. Abbie Cornish (Bright Star) – Like Mulligan, the performance is the talk of the movie.
9. Melanie Laurent (Inglourious Basterds) – Just won lead from the Online Film Critics Society
10. Maya Rudolph (Away We Go) – Nominated in Chicago.
NAMES VOTING GROUPS SHOULD NOT OVERLOOK
Amy Adams (Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian), Penelope Cruz (Broken Embraces), Zooey Deschanel ((500) Days of Summer), Jennifer Garner (The Invention of Lying), Sasha Grey (The Girlfriend Experience), Melanie Laurent (Inglourious Basterds), Gwyneth Paltrow (Two Lovers), Tilda Swinton (Julia), Rachel Weisz (The Brothers Bloom)
*************************BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*************************
1. Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds) – The most talked about Nazi since Ralph Fiennes. That didn't sound right.
2. Woody Harrelson (The Messenger) – It may not be for Zombieland, but could be first nod since Larry Flynt.
3. Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones) – His showier Lovely Bones role may put him over the top this year.
4. Matt Damon (Invictus) – The Informant was a better performance. This would be a body-of-work nomination.
5. Christopher Plummer (The Last Station) – Could be the one to steal McKay's spot.
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6. Christian McKay (Me and Orson Welles) – Still an underdog, but one gaining strength.
7. Alfred Molina (An Education) – A great performance getting drowned out in all the Mulligan/Sarsgaard hype.
8. Peter Capaldi (In the Loop) – No review failed to mention his brilliance.
9. Anthony Mackie (The Hurt Locker) – Where's the love?
10. Peter Sarsgaard (An Education) – His name is being mentioned almost as much as Carey Mulligan's in the praise.
NAMES VOTING GROUPS SHOULD NOT OVERLOOK
Jason Bateman (State of Play), Jeff Bridges (The Men Who Stare at Goats), Jim Broadbent (Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince), Nathan Fillion (Trucker), James Gandolfini (In The Loop or Where the Wild Things Are), Jackie Earle Haley (Watchmen), Tom Hollander (In the Loop), Chris Messina (Away We Go), Alan Rickman (Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince)
************************BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS************************
1. Mo'Nique (Precious) – The ranking you thought you would never see.
2. Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air) – Proof that cast members from Twilight can act.
3. Vera Farmiga (Up In The Air) – Nominations have eluded her so far. Will the role be big enough to ride the wave?
4. Julianne Moore (A Single Man) – Doing her best Elaine Benes impression from The Beard episode.
5. Penelope Cruz (Nine) – The most enjoyable performance in the film in more ways than one. Could the victory last year deny her a chance though?
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6. Diane Kruger (Inglourious Basterds) – SAG nomination has her on the playing field.
7. Samantha Morton (The Messenger) – Plays the wife of a slain Iraq soldier.
8. Natalie Portman (Brothers) – Got surprise nomination from Chicago.
9. Marion Cotillard (Nine) – The BFCA nominated her here instead of as a Lead.
10. Maggie Gyllenhaal (Away We Go) – Good double-dip year for her. More believable here than in Crazy Heart. And that's saying something.
NAMES VOTING GROUPS SHOULD NOT OVERLOOK
Isabelle Fuhrman (Orphan), Catherine Keener (Where the Wild Things Are), Adrianne Palicki (Women in Trouble)
********************BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY********************
1. Inglourious Basterds (by Quentin Tarantino) – Looking like the favorite despite not being WGA-eligible.
2. The Hurt Locker (by Mark Boal) – Will it be remembered for the talk as well as the bang?
3. A Serious Man (by Joel & Ethan Coen) – Even if the top nods allude them, this should be a no-brainer.
4. Up (by Bob Peterson) – Pixar has a solid history of nominations here.
5. (500) Days of Summer (by Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber) – Could be the film's one guaranteed nomination.
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6. It's Complicated (by Nancy Meyers) – Only nomination? 1980's Private Benjamin.
7. Away We Go (by Dave Eggers & Vendela Vida) – Seems unfathomable that such a fantastic screenplay will be overlooked.
8. Avatar (by James Cameron) – One of the few nominations Titanic failed to get. And that was a better script.
9. The White Ribbon (by Michael Haneke) – Hasn't been nominated yet. Why start now?
10. Broken Embraces (by Pedro Almodóvar) – One nomination and win here for Almodovar. In 2002.
SCRIPTS VOTING GROUPS SHOULD NOT OVERLOOK
The Girlfriend Experience (by Brian Koppelman & David Levien), Goodbye Solo (by Ramin Bahrani), The Invention of Lying (by Ricky Gervais & Matthew Robinson), Moon (by Nathan Parker), Observe and Report (by Jody Hill), Sugar (by Anna Boden & Ryan Fleck), World's Greatest Dad (by Bobcat Goldthwait)
************************BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY************************
1. Up in the Air (by Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner) – Softened elements from the novel but still enough of an edge to be the favorite.
2. Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (by Geoffrey Fletcher ) – Hey, did you know this was an adaptation?
3. An Education (by Nick Hornby) – If the film gets two nominations, this will be the second.
4. District 9 (by Neill Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell) – Will it be thrown a bone outside of the tech categories? Or two?
5. Fantastic Mr. Fox (by Wes Anderson & Noah Baumbach) – Not in the ball park of Where the Wild Things Are, but it's the kids film adaptation getting the accolades.
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6. Crazy Heart (by Scott Cooper) – The USC Scripters liked it. So did the WGA.
7. In the Loop (by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci & Tony Roche) – Unquestionably one of the smartest scripts of the year. Maybe the smartest that could be overlooked.
8. Star Trek (by Scott Z. Burns) – Yes, the Writers Guild nominated it.
9. Where the Wild Things Are (by Spike Jonze & Dave Eggers) – They took ten sentences and made a family masterpiece.
10. A Single Man (by Tom Ford & David Scearce) – A fun, sly satire on the conventions of the whistle blower genre.
SCRIPTS VOTING GROUPS SHOULD NOT OVERLOOK
Coraline (by Henry Selick), Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (by Steve Kloves), The Informant! (by Scott Z. Burns)
*************************BEST ANIMATED FEATURE*************************
1. Up – Assuming it gets a Best Picture nod, will it still be here?
2. Fantastic Mr. Fox – Animation style may win it a few points.
3. Coraline – Selick's previous works debuted when this category didn't exist. In danger from upcoming features though.
4. Ponyo – Spirited Away and Howl's Moving Castle - both nominated.
5. The Princess and the Frog – Can Disney make a 2-D statement with a thin, female African-American protagonist? As opposed to Precious.
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6. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs – Sony's most successful animated feature to date. Nice reviews, but will be hard to sneak in.
7. Monsters vs. Aliens – Just shy of $200 million. Its own reward.
8. A Christmas Carol – Zemeckis finally allows his weakest animated film to be eligible here.
9. Mary and Max – Opened Sundance. Premiered On Demand. Maybe next best animated film after Up in 2009.
10. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – Just shy of Monsters vs. Aliens box office. Original was nominated.
THE REMAINING QUALIFIERS
9, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel, Astro Boy, Battle for Terra, The Dolphin – Story of a Dreamer, The Missing Lynx, Planet 51, The Secret of Kells, Tinker Bell and the Lost Treasure, A Town Called Panic
*************************BEST ART DIRECTION*************************
1. Inglourious Basterds
2. The Lovely Bones
3. Avatar
4. Public Enemies
5. Where the Wild Things Are
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6. A Serious Man
7. Julie & Julia
8. District 9
9. Sherlock Holmes
10. Harry Potter & The Half-Blood Prince
*************************BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY*************************
1. Inglourious Basterds (Robert Richardson)
2. The Hurt Locker (Barry Ackroyd)
3. Avatar (Mauro Fiore)
4. The White Ribbon (Christian Berger)
5. Nine (Dion Beebe)
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6. The Lovely Bones (Andrew Lesnie)
7. An Education (John de Borman)
8. Where the Wild Things Are (Lance Acord)
9. The Road (Javier Aguirresarobe)
10. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (Bruno Delbonnel)
CINEMATOGRAPHY VOTING GROUPS SHOULD NOT OVERLOOK
The Brothers Bloom (Steve Yedlin), The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (Nicola Pecorini), A Serious Man (Roger Deakins), Sin Nombre (Adriano Goldman), Watchmen (Larry Fong)
*************************BEST COSTUME DESIGN*************************
1. An Education
2. Nine
3. Inglourious Basterds
4. The Young Victoria
5. Bright Star
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6. The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
7. A Serious Man
8. Public Enemies
9. Watchmen
10. Me and Orson Welles
DON'T COUNT OUT
Amelia, Black Dynamite, The Brothers Bloom, Bruno, Cheri, Coco Before Chanel, Easy Virtue, The Hurt Locker, My One and Only, Red Cliff, Sherlock Holmes, Star Trek
*************************BEST DOCUMENTARY*************************
1. The Cove – When South Park is on your side, you must have struck a nerve.
2. Food, Inc. – Dolphin-safe, but everything else bad for you.
3. Valentino: The Last Emperor – The Oscars do love their fancy clothing.
4. Every Little Step – Haven't we moved on from A Chorus Line to Glee?
5. Garbage Dreams – This year's Slumdog without the Millionaire?
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6. The Beaches of Agnes – Hard to resist a film about a filmmaker.
7. Under Our Skin – Health care! Health care! Health care! On Lyme Disease?
8. The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers - Tells us little that we didn't already know.
9. Burma VJ – When you get the monks upset, watch out!
10. Which Way Home – Lou Dobbs' personal A Clockwork Orange.
OTHERS IN THE RUNNING
Facing Ali, Living in Emergency: Stories of Doctors Without Borders, Mugabe and the White African, Sergio, Soundtrack for a Revolution
OTHER NOTABLES SHUT OUT
Anvil: The Story of Anvil, Brothers At War, Capitalism: A Love Story, Collapse, Crude, Good Hair, It Might Get Loud, Michael Jackson's This Is It, More Than a Game, Motherland, No Impact Man, Outrage, Passing Strange, The September Issue, Soul Power, Tyson, Unmistaken Child, Walt & El Guapo, The Way We Get By, We Live in Public, The Yes Men Fix the World, Yoo-Hoo, Mrs. Goldberg
*************************BEST EDITING*************************
1. The Hurt Locker (Chris Innis & Bob Murawski)
2. Inglourious Basterds (Sally Menke)
3. Avatar (Steve R. Moore, John Refoua & Stephen Rivkin)
4. Up in the Air (Dana E. Glauberman)
5. District 9 (Julian Clarke)
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6. Nine (Claire Simpson & Wyatt Smith)
7. An Education (Barney Pilling)
8. Up (Kevin Nolting)
9. The Lovely Bones (Jabez Olssen)
10. Invictus (Joel Cox & Gary D. Roach)
EDITING VOTING GROUPS SHOULD NOT OVERLOOK
(500) Days of Summer (Alan Edward Bell), The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (Mick Audsley), In the Loop (Anthony Boys & Billy Sneddon), Moon (Nicolas Gaster), Taken (Frédéric Thoraval), Watchmen (William Hoy), Where the Wild Things Are (James Haygood & Eric Zumbrunnen)
*************************BEST MAKEUP*************************
1. District 9
2. Star Trek
3. The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
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4. The Road
5. The Young Victoria
6. Night At The Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian
7. Il Divo
*************************BEST ORIGINAL SCORE*************************
1. Up (Michael Giacchino) - (also: Star Trek)
2. Avatar (James Horner)
3. The Informant! (Marvin Hamlisch)
4. Fantastic Mr. Fox (Alexandre Desplat)
5. The Princess and the Frog (Randy Newman)
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6. Coco Before Chanel (Alexandre Desplat) - (also: Cheri, Fantastic Mr. Fox and Julia & Julia)
7. A Serious Man (Carter Burwell)
8. An Education (Paul Englishby)
9. Bright Star (Mark Bradshaw)
10. Invictus (Kyle Eastwood & Michael Stevens)
*************************BEST ORIGINAL SONG*************************
1.“The Weary Kind” (Crazy Heart) – Bruce Springsteen's The Wrestler got screwed last year. LISTEN
2. “Cinema Italiano” (Nine) – I think the film has Italians in it. LISTEN
3.“Almost There” (The Princess and the Frog) – The only somewhat memorable song from the film.
4. “(I Want To) Come Home” (Everybody's Fine) – Paul McCartney's Vanilla Sky song was nominated in 2001. LISTEN
5. “I See You” (Avatar) – How did Cameron's last closing credits love song do? LISTEN
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6. “You've Got Me Wrapped Around Your Little Finger” (An Education) – How voters feel about Carey Mulligan? LISTEN
7. “Trust Me” (The Informant!) – Jazzy summation may be too good for voters to resist. LISTEN
8.“Invictus 9,000 Days” (Invictus) – Can an Eastwood finally get a music nod?
9. “Down In New Orleans” (The Princess and the Frog) – The film's opening song. LISTEN
10. “All is Love” (Where the Wild Things Are) – One of the year's best closing songs. LISTEN
11. “Take it All” (Nine) – Just to see Marion Cotillard recreate her strip number from the film.
12.“Winter” (Brothers) - U2 lost to Eminem in 2002. LISTEN
13. “Never Knew I Needed” (The Princess and the Frog) – Randy Newman is writing the songs and you end with Ne-Yo. LISTEN
14. “Smoke Without Fire” (An Education) – The Duffy song is eligible LISTEN
15. “Petey's Song” (Fantastic Mr. Fox) – You're a bad songwriter, Petey! LISTEN
*************************BEST SOUND*************************
1. The Hurt Locker
2. Avatar
3. Inglourious Basterds
4. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
5. District 9
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6. Up
7. Star Trek
8. Watchmen
9. Public Enemies
10. Nine
*************************BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING*************************
1. The Hurt Locker
2. Avatar
3. District 9
4. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
5. Up
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6. Star Trek
7. 2012
8. Watchmen
9. Inglourious Basterds
10. Public Enemies
*************************BEST VISUAL EFFECTS*************************
1. Avatar
2. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
3. District 9
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4. 2012
5. Star Trek
6. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
7. Terminator Salvation
QUALIFIED FOR FIRST LIST - NOT FOR FINAL LIST
Angels & Demons, A Christmas Carol, Coraline, G-Force, G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra, Sherlock Holmes, Watchmen, Where the Wild Things Are
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link directly to this feature at http://www.efilmcritic.com/feature.php?feature=2870
originally posted: 10/29/09 07:39:57
last updated: 02/03/10 10:35:43
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